Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

2020 US election Mail-In Ballot Percentage


This question was proposed by a metaculus user who wished to remain anonymous, though it has since been edited.

Concerns about the spread of COVID-19 have led a number of states to make mail-in/absentee voting easier or available to more people. The share of voters voting by mail-in/absentee ballot has already grown over the years, amounting to about 23.6% in 2016 compared to 12.2% in 2004, according to the U.S. Election Assistance Commission. However, concerns exist about attacks on mail-in. This question asks:

What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be mail-in or absentee?

Both ballots cast by mail and 'absentee' or 'mail-in' ballots that are dropped off by the voter or their proxy at a designated drop-off location shall be counted towards the resolution of this question.

If it is for some reason not possible to calculate the exact share of ballots that are mail-in or absentee, this question will resolve on the basis of the moderators' best estimate.

If there is no US presidential election in 2020, this question resolves ambiguously.

ETA (2020-09-10) For the purpose of this question, ballots that are submitted and rejected count as still counted toward to amount of ballots submitted.

Politics – US

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.