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Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?

Tensions are high in the Korean peninsula, with bellicose rhetoric emanating from both North Korean and US governments.

Will North Korea attack another country, causing greater than one hundred fatalities in a single day before the end of 2020?

This question will resolve positive if greater than 100 deaths in a single 24 hour period are attributed to the North Korean government prior Jan 1, 2021.

Fine print:

  • The "100 fatalities" does not include North Korean military and civilian deaths, only citizens of all countries other than North Korea.

  • Any kind of counter-attack counts towards the "100 fatalities" figure – for example if North Korea is attacked by the US and responds by attacking Japan, any Japanese fatalities would count toward the 100.

  • The "100 fatalities" figure can be met by any/all fatalities coming from multiple countries within the same 24h period as long as each fatality is attributed to an action by the North Korean government.

Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by the US or UK government or United Nations. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.)


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