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A jump in market volatility over the coming month?

In the popular financial press, the VIX Index is often referred to as the "fear gauge". In reality, it is a quantitative assessment of expected stock market volatility over the next thirty day period, and is computed from S&P 500 stock index option prices.

To rule-of-thumb accuracy, the numerical value of the VIX corresponds to the annualized one-sigma percentage change in the value of the S&P 500 Index over the next month. At present, the VIX stands just below 16, so very roughly speaking, this means that the market ascribes a 30% chance that stocks will have changed in price by more than 4.5% by mid-September 2018.

Typically, the value of the VIX lies between 12 and 20, but it regularly spikes during times of market turmoil. During the 2008 financial crisis, for example, the VIX briefly reached values above 80. So far during 2017, and as recently as last week, stock volatility has consistently tested near-record low levels, but recent jitters surrounding the situation on the Korean peninsula have caused the index to spike by more than 50%.

Prior to September 12, 2017, will the VIX Index have an intra-day print with a value above 25?

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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

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