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    < $1Bn Revenue from GPT Language Models

    Created by Anthony and
    co-authors , {{coauthor.username}}
    on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}

    Per this tweet, Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that

    Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one.

    Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?

    This question will resolve as Yes if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, No if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and Ambiguous if nobody has conceded before January 1, 2026

    Categories:
    Computer Science – AI and Machine Learning
    Computing – Artificial Intelligence
    Impactful Forecasting Prize

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