Question
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Total Forecasters1715
Community Prediction
Apr 2033
(14 Mar 2028 - Jun 2044)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 14 Mar 2028 | — |
| median | Apr 2033 | — |
| upper 75% | Jun 2044 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2199 | 2.2% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Aug 23, 2020
Closes:Dec 24, 2199
Scheduled resolution:Dec 24, 2199
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 25, 2020
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Authors:
Opened:Aug 23, 2020
Closes:Dec 24, 2199
Scheduled resolution:Dec 24, 2199
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 25, 2020
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch