Question

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

176

488 comments488

Total Forecasters1435

Community Prediction2032-12-08

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2199-12-25

...

2027-09-23 21:42

2032-12-08 01:10

2046-02-02 11:02

3.3%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Turing test

Information technology

Philosophy

Data analysis

Artificial general intelligence

Software engineering

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When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2027-10-16

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

46.8

When will AI arrive?

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