622 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Oct 2033
Key Factors
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Aug 23, 2020
Closes:Dec 24, 2199
Scheduled resolution:Dec 24, 2199
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 25, 2020
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
09 May 2027
(26 Jan 2026 - 23 Jul 2030)
09 May 2027
(26 Jan 2026 - 23 Jul 2030)
1.7k forecasters
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Oct 2030
(23 Jul 2026 - Apr 2040)
Oct 2030
(23 Jul 2026 - Apr 2040)
181 forecasters
Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?
1% chance
396