630 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Jun 2033
Top Key Factors
Authors:
Opened:Aug 23, 2020
Closes:Dec 24, 2199
Scheduled resolution:Dec 24, 2199
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 25, 2020
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
17 Oct 2027
(19 Apr 2026 - Jul 2031)
17 Oct 2027
(19 Apr 2026 - Jul 2031)
1.7k forecasters
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Apr 2031
(21 Oct 2026 - Nov 2041)
Apr 2031
(21 Oct 2026 - Nov 2041)
182 forecasters
Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?
1% chance
413