Question

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

205

622 comments622

Total Forecasters1756

Community Prediction

Jan 2033

(20 May 2028 - Oct 2041)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2199
community	20 May 2028	Jan 2033	Oct 2041	1.0%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	20 May 2028	—
median	Jan 2033	—
upper 75%	Oct 2041	—
Upper bound
>2199	1.0%	—

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Aug 23, 2020

Closes:

Dec 24, 2199

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 24, 2199

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 25, 2020

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

What If A.I. Doesn’t Get Much Better Than This?

New Yorker•Aug 13, 2025

The CEO of Google DeepMind says one flaw is holding AI back from reaching full AGI

Business Insider•Aug 12, 2025

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When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

10 Apr 2027

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Sep 2030

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Aug 23, 2020

Closes:

Dec 24, 2199

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 24, 2199

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 25, 2020

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

What If A.I. Doesn’t Get Much Better Than This?

New Yorker•Aug 13, 2025

The CEO of Google DeepMind says one flaw is holding AI back from reaching full AGI

Business Insider•Aug 12, 2025

ChatGPT-5 Has Arrived: What OpenAI’s Most Powerful AI Model Can Actually Do

•Aug 12, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

10 Apr 2027

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Sep 2030