AI companies dont get funding (due to AI bubble bursting)

↑ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals

Someone solves the alignment problem (I'd hope timelines are longer without this & shorter with it)

Strong regulation of AI companies by US government

↓ grid/permit delays & export controls on HBM/nodes

China starts a war with Taiwan

↑ multi-year compute/colo contracts confirmed via filings

AI CEOs realize theres no reason to race when all fellow racers are moral people who can cooperate to save the world