Question
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Total Forecasters1741
Community Prediction
Jul 2032
(28 Nov 2027 - Dec 2041)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 28 Nov 2027 | — |
| median | Jul 2032 | — |
| upper 75% | Dec 2041 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2199 | 1.4% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Aug 23, 2020
Closes:Dec 24, 2199
Scheduled resolution:Dec 24, 2199
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 25, 2020
Authors:
Opened:Aug 23, 2020
Closes:Dec 24, 2199
Scheduled resolution:Dec 24, 2199
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 25, 2020