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COVID deaths without challenge trials
Human challenge trials involve deliberately exposing participants to infection in order to study diseases and test vaccines or treatments. As of August 19, 2020, the organization 1Day Sooner had recruited 34,804 volunteers for COVID-19 human challenge trials. This Metaculus question asks when a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people will be completed. The current median community prediction is February 5, 2021.
How many deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19 will occur if no human challenge trials are run before February 5, 2021, in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people?
- Whether a human challenge trial for COVID-19 has occurred will be based on the resolution of the question: When will a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people be completed?
- If no human challenge trial occurs before February 5, 2021, then this question will resolve as the resolution of this question: How many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?
- If one or more human challenge trials for COVID-19 take place before February 5, 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.
Other possible world:
- If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?
See the rest of the Possible Worlds Series here.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.