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25
77
forecasters
5
25 comments
77 forecasters
AI Technical Benchmarks
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Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?
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Dates Large AI Models Released
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07 Oct 2029
2
07 Sep 2026
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FLOP usage for training transformative AI
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5.5×10³⁰ FLOP
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12 Nov 2027
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Billions of Param of Largest ML Model by 2030
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1.29M B
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Transformative AI Date
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Jun 2039
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First AGI based on deep learning?
95%
chance
25 comments
67 forecasters
Years Between GWP Growth >25% and AGI
Current estimate
5.05 years
6 comments
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When will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be publicly available?
Current estimate
26 Dec 2027