Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?
Google trends, according to Wikipedia, "is a public web facility of Google Inc., based on Google Search, that shows how often a particular search-term is entered relative to the total search-volume." Numbers are recorded since 2004. For the search term "russia" the month with the highest search volume in "russia" was February 2013 (meteor explosion), followed by March 2014 (Ukraine crisis). The graph for search volume over all time can be accessed by this URL: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=russia
Will the google trend graph for "russia", showing values of all time, will have a value of 100 for one month of 2018? (Which means that that month has the most search volume over the time range displayed.)
In 2018, the FIFA world cup will take place in Russia, an event guaranteed to raise global interest.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.