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Clear skies during totality at the Grand Tetons?
A popular (but frustratingly long-resolution) question on Metaculus asks whether the total solar eclipse of June 25, 2522 will occur. Current odds stand at 95%...
Of more immediate concern is not whether the eclipse of August 21, 2017 (which will cut right through the center of the country, in a swathe from Oregon to South Carolina) will occur, but whether the weather conditions at points along the path of totality will lead to clouded-out eclipses.
Grand Teton National Park is perhaps the most iconic location along the coast-to-coast track of totality. As of Saturday evening, August 19, 2017, the weather forecast for the park at the time of totality calls optimistically yet nerve-wrackingly for "mostly sunny".
At the Jackson Lake location of the famous photograph of The Great Daylight Fireball of 1972, will the eclipse be clearly visible during totality (1:36 PM MDT) on August 21?
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.