44 forecasters

LIGO announcement of a neutron star merger in NGC 4993?

71%chance

71%chance

ResolvedYes

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 71% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Aug 26, 2017

Closes:

Oct 1, 2017

Resolved:

Oct 17, 2017

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 27, 2017

Natural Sciences

2017 Leaderboard

Black hole collision confirms decades-old predictions by Einstein and Hawking

CNN•Sep 11, 2025

Gravitational waves finally prove Stephen Hawking's black hole theorem

New Scientist•Sep 10, 2025

The discovery of a gravitational wave 10 years ago shook astrophysics – these ripples in spacetime continue to reveal dark objects in the cosmos

The Conversation•Sep 10, 2025

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