191
698 forecasters
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?
8%chance
Top Key Factors
Deterrence against israel
Increases Likelihood
Political will to maintain the threat of strikes
Increases Likelihood
Stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium likely unaffected by strikes
Increases Likelihood
The bomb is an attractive deterrent against attacks
Increases Likelihood
Enrichment may be primarily for bargaining incentive
Decreases Likelihood
China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy
Increases Likelihood
Fatwa against nuclear weapons
Decreases Likelihood
Monitoring collapse / loss of continuity of knowledge
Increases Likelihood
Assumes Iran doesn’t already have 1+ Nukes - which is not what some analysts have been saying since the 1990s.
Increases Likelihood
Base rate below 50% for similarly sized economies
Increases Likelihood