Question

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

67

180 comments180

Total Forecasters559

Community Prediction

35%

(20% - 56.8%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 35%

Authors:

Opened:

Sep 20, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 21, 2020

Iran-Israel Conflict

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Iran Issues Nuclear Update After U.S. Slams Decision

Newsweek•Jul 3, 2025

Iran Ready to Enrich Uranium Up to Bomb-Grade Levels: "We Can Do That"

Newsweek•Jul 2, 2025

Iran Confirms Significant Nuclear Decision

Newsweek•Jul 2, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

Authors:

Opened:

Sep 20, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 21, 2020

Iran-Israel Conflict

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Iran Issues Nuclear Update After U.S. Slams Decision

Newsweek•Jul 3, 2025

Iran Ready to Enrich Uranium Up to Bomb-Grade Levels: "We Can Do That"

Newsweek•Jul 2, 2025

Iran Confirms Significant Nuclear Decision

Newsweek•Jul 2, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?