Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
185
comments
626
forecasters
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?
25%
chance
5 points
Share
Predict
Top Key Factors
View all (9)
Deterrence against israel
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
12 votes
Stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium likely unaffected by strikes
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
20 votes
Enrichment may be primarily for bargaining incentive
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
10 votes
Political will to maintain the threat of strikes
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
7 votes
Fatwa against nuclear weapons
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
11 votes
The bomb is an attractive deterrent against attacks
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
14 votes
China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
15 votes
Assumes Iran doesn’t already have 1+ Nukes - which is not what some analysts have been saying since the 1990s.
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
6 votes
Comments
Timeline
In the News
Key Factors
Question Info
Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Resolution Criteria
Key Factors
Background Info
Histogram
Follow
embed
Authors:
rcloud
Opened:
Sep 20, 2020
Closes:
Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:
Sep 21, 2020
Iran-Israel Conflict
Technology
Geopolitics
Politics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
News Match
Iran Issues Nuclear Update After Satellite Images Revealed Activity
Newsweek
•
Nov 3, 2025
Satellite Photos Reveal Nuclear Activity in Iran
Newsweek
•
Oct 29, 2025
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
Similar Questions
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?
70%
chance
122
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?
0.1%
chance
1.1k
Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?
26
Show More Questions