25 comments
91 forecasters
Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?
15%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 15% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Sep 17, 2020
Closes:Sep 28, 2020
Resolved:Oct 14, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 18, 2020
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will Donald Trump have a positive net favorability rate on December 20, 2025, according to 538?
1% chance
2.1k
What will Donald Trump's net approval be on November 2, 2026?
-10.5
(-13.9 - -7.22)
-10.5
(-13.9 - -7.22)
144 forecasters
Will Donald Trump's 100% tariff on China take effect on November 1, 2025?
7% chance
60