7 comments
25 forecasters
What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?
Current estimate
0.756 ratio
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 4, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 6, 2020
Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?
83% chance
43
Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?
62.2% chance
52
What percentage of people cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200?
1.42%
(0.444 - 13.5)
1.42%
(0.444 - 13.5)
46 forecasters