27 comments
135 forecasters
If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?
47%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 47% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Sep 29, 2020
Closes:Sep 24, 2021
Resolved:Sep 28, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 1, 2020
If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?
21.9% chance
20
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?
29.2% chance
281
If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?
25% chance
45