40 comments
103 forecasters
How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?
Latest estimate
5.45
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Oct 14, 2020
Closed:Jan 1, 2024
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2033
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 16, 2020
Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?
25% chance
2.1k
By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?
8% chance
124
What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years?
70 forecasters