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10k+ US conflict deaths in 1 year by 2030


I'm interested in whether the USA will be involved in a major hot war in the next decade. I wasn't satisfied with the resolution criteria of other questions on this topic, so I created this one.

By 2030, will 10,000+ Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

For purposes of this question, deaths due to bioweapons, electricity grid failures, etc. don't count. Roughly, we are interested in "deaths due to kinetic attacks." The 9/11 attacks count because ramming planes into buildings to make them collapse is kinetic. Were someone to hack into the FDA and mess things up so as to delay vaccine approval, thereby causing tens of thousands of deaths, that would not count.

The attackers don't need to be the military of a nation-state; terrorist groups count and coalitions/alliances also count.

However, the attackers need to be "part of the same team" in some sense. Otherwise, this would resolve positive simply in virtue of the US annual homicide rate! If there were a series of race riots, insurrections, or acts of domestic terrorism linked together under one banner (e.g. white supremacy, antigovernment, or antipolice) that would count.

Yes, this means that (contrary to what the headline question would suggest) if the USA gets involved in several independent small-scale wars, the US casualties from which total more than 10,000 in a year, that would not count.

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