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Donald Trump USA President on 2021-01-21

The 2020 USA Presidential election is widely expected to be contested. Notably, the higher proportion of mail ballots brought by the COVID-19 epidemic could lead vote counting to take weeks instead of the usual days. The incumbent has also refused to commit to a peaceful transition of power.

Metaculus already has a question asking whether Donald Trump will be reelected, but it is conditional on the result being known within a week. In view of the above, this question asks:

Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?

This question resolves positive if Donald Trump is the President of the USA at 12:00 AM EST on 2021-01-21.

It resolves negative if he is not president at that time.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.