118 forecasters

Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?

25%chance

25%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 25% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Oct 19, 2020

Closes:

Oct 30, 2020

Resolved:

Mar 6, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 20, 2020

20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest

2020 Leaderboard

Kim Jong Un oversees ‘eye-opening’ test of new long-range nuclear missile

Independent•Sep 9, 2025

North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un Gives Major Nuclear Update

Newsweek•Sep 9, 2025

North Korea conducts its final ground test of a solid-fuel engine for long-range missiles

NBC•Sep 9, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch