Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
12M COVID cases in the US by Christmas?
This question is part of the 20/20 Insight Tournament. To participate, you’ll need to fill out this survey.
As of 14 October 2020, the number of cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States stands at approximately 7,894,800. Following a peak in July, the rate of new confirmed cases in August and the beginning of September had trended downward, however, since mid-September new confirmed cases have been on the rise.
Throughout the course of its spread in the United States, US president Donald Trump had been publicly dismissive of the threat posed by the virus. After having contracted coronavirus in early October, and quickly recovering, the President has doubled down on his message to the public that they should not be afraid of the disease.
This question asks:
Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?
The question resolves according to data on Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resources website on the 24th of December at 11:59PM ET.
To participate in the contest and be eligible for the prizes, you must answer this question in the dedicated survey linked here.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.