MetaculusM

Question

Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?

14

Total Forecasters98

Community Prediction24% (10% - 28%)

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50%

community: 24%

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Economy & Business

SpaceX Starship

SpaceX reusable launch system

Mars sample-return mission

Colonization of Mars

NASA scrapped its $11 billion scheme to grab Mars rocks that may point to alien life. Now it has a faster, cheaper plan.

Business Insider•Jan 21, 2025

The Fate of NASA’s Mars Sample Return Program May Be Decided in 2026

Scientific American•Jan 21, 2025

Mars samples that could help us find alien life are stuck there until at least 2035, NASA says

Independent•Jan 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Economy & Business

SpaceX Starship

SpaceX reusable launch system

Mars sample-return mission

Colonization of Mars

NASA scrapped its $11 billion scheme to grab Mars rocks that may point to alien life. Now it has a faster, cheaper plan.

Business Insider•Jan 21, 2025

The Fate of NASA’s Mars Sample Return Program May Be Decided in 2026

Scientific American•Jan 21, 2025

Mars samples that could help us find alien life are stuck there until at least 2035, NASA says

Independent•Jan 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch