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If you fall and can't get up, when will there be a friendly computer looking on to notice your predicament?
The catchphrase "I've fallen and I can't get up," appearing in commercials for the LifeCall medical alert system in the late '80s and early '90s, brought attention to the fact that falls by elderly people present a significant health and safety risk. Nearly three million older adults are treated in emergency rooms for falls each year, with the injuries including hip fractures and traumatic brain injury.
Researchers have been developing computer vision-based systems to detect when adults fall. The latest effort is a 3D system that uses two cameras to discern the floor surface, estimate the pose of a human in the picture, and tell whether or not that person has fallen to the ground. The authors of the paper describing the system write that the system can determine non-flat planes too, such as ramps. In tests simulating home and office environments, the system correctly identified whether a person had fallen or not 93% and 91% of the time, respectively.
When will a computer vision system to detect falls in elderly populations enter the commercial market?
This question will resolve as positive when a commercial product with the express aim of detecting when elderly people have fallen using computer vision, is offered for sale. Resolution is by announcement/evidence that one can actually order order or pre-order the device, if pre-ordering requires payment or deposit.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.