51 comments
109 forecasters
Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?
76%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 76% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Oct 24, 2020
Closes:Nov 2, 2020
Resolved:Nov 15, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 25, 2020
Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?
43 forecasters
Will "Change in Average Inflation Rate" correctly predict the popular vote winner in the 2028 US presidential election?
3 forecasters
Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?
70% chance
993