• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
51 comments
109 forecasters

Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?

76%chance
76%chance
ResolvedYes
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 76% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
SimonM
Opened:Oct 24, 2020
Closes:Nov 2, 2020
Resolved:Nov 15, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 25, 2020
Elections
2020 Leaderboard
Forbes logo
Why Prediction Markets Like Kalshi Are Attracting Savvy Billionaire Investors
Forbes•Sep 15, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?

2021-2022
No
2023-2024
No
2025-2026
20%
1 other
8 forecasters

Will "Change in Average Inflation Rate" correctly predict the popular vote winner in the 2028 US presidential election?

"Change in Average Inflation Rate" will correctly predict the 2028 Popular Vote Winner
55.5%
"Change in Average Inflation Rate" will be below 0% for the 2028 election
40%
2 forecasters

Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?

65% chance
985
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature