65 comments
115 forecasters
Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?
52%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 52% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Oct 24, 2020
Closes:Nov 2, 2020
Resolved:Nov 15, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 25, 2020
Will "Change in Average Inflation Rate" correctly predict the popular vote winner in the 2028 US presidential election?
2 forecasters
Will Donald Trump have a positive net favorability rate on December 20, 2025, according to 538?
1% chance
2.1k
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?
7.25
(6.9 - 7.6)
7.25
(6.9 - 7.6)
92 forecasters