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Maximum chance 538 assigns Trump live


FiveThirtyEight usually has a live election prediction. In 2018, their live model assigned about a 50% chance to Republicans holding the House of Representatives at one point, despite their model initially predicting only a 12% chance of that outcome. In the end, Democrats took the House.

What will be the maximum probability 538 assigns Trump in their live election prediction?

This question resolves as the maximum probability (in percentage points) that FiveThirtyEight assigns to Donald Trump winning re-election in their live election prediction. Resolution will be made via credible evidence given by linking to either the official live prediction timeline, or an archive of the live prediction. If FiveThirtyEight does not release a live prediction, this question resolves ambiguously.

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