When Columbus sailed to America in 1492, the "New world" had a fraction of the population and GDP of Europe. At the time it may have seemed implausible to guess that the gap would ever be overcome. However after a series of World Wars, the relative fortune of Europe declined while America --rich in resources and isolated by two oceans-- continued to grow. Ultimately, the GDP of the USA alone would be greater than that of Western Europe after WWII.
It may seem similarly improbable that Mars --a planet so inhospitable it is inhabited only by robots-- would ever surpass Earth. But, history is long. If a self-sustaining colony is ever founded on Mars, it would have some chance of exceeding Earth's GDP based solely on the possibility of calamity on Earth.
When will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?
This question will resolve – on the basis of credible reporting – to December 31st of the first year in which the real GDP of Mars exceeds that of Earth.
If it does not resolve positive before the ending date of 3000AD, it will resolve to the upper-bound.
If the GDP falls into disuse, and Metaculus Admins find no obvious alternatives, this resolves ambiguous.
Because of the dates involved in this question, it is unlikely any current Metaculus users will remain to collect points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith.