Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
1% GWP off-Earth
Since the launch of our first satellite into orbit in 1957, human activity in outer space has been gradually increasing as the decades pass. As of writing, humans have visited the Moon, placed thousands of satellites around Earth and other celestial objects, and low Earth orbit has been inhabited continuously for just over 20 years now.
Elon Musk wants to colonize Mars and Jeff Bezos has talked about moving industry to space, but as of yet, there is still essentially no economic activity that happens (almost) exclusively in outer space. How soon is this going to change?
When will 1% of humanity's Gross World Product (GWP) be produced off-Earth?
This question will resolve positively when there is a credible report of the total GWP of all economic activity away from Earth equaling at least 1/99th of the total GWP produced on Earth, as judged by Metaculus administrators.
Economic activity will be counted as being "off-Earth" so long as it is exclusively performed at least 100 km above the Earth's surface. A rocket launching a probe from the Earth's surface would be part of Earth's GWP, while that same probe performing asteroid mining would count as off-Earth GWP.
As it's fairly likely the exact date when the 1% milestone is achieved might not be knowable with certainty due to ambiguities, this question will retroactively resolve to January 1st of the year when it was deemed to have occurred.
If this question does not resolve positive before the ending date of 2300 AD, it will resolve to the upper bound.
If the GWP falls into disuse and Metaculus administrators find no obvious alternatives, this resolves ambiguous.
For the purposes of this question...
The term "Gross World Product" will refer to humanity's total economic activity across all inhabited space, including any worlds or artificial habitats beyond Earth.
The word "humanity" will also include genetically modified or cybernetic Earth-originating organisms, emulated humans (ems), and artificial intelligences (AIs).
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.