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1% GWP off-Earth


Since the launch of our first satellite into orbit in 1957, human activity in outer space has been gradually increasing as the decades pass. As of writing, humans have visited the Moon, placed thousands of satellites around Earth and other celestial objects, and low Earth orbit has been inhabited continuously for just over 20 years now.

Elon Musk wants to colonize Mars and Jeff Bezos has talked about moving industry to space, but as of yet, there is still essentially no economic activity that happens (almost) exclusively in outer space. How soon is this going to change?

When will 1% of humanity's Gross World Product (GWP) be produced off-Earth?

This question will resolve positively when there is a credible report of the total GWP of all economic activity away from Earth equaling at least 1/99th of the total GWP produced on Earth, as judged by Metaculus administrators.

Economic activity will be counted as being "off-Earth" so long as it is exclusively performed at least 100 km above the Earth's surface. A rocket launching a probe from the Earth's surface would be part of Earth's GWP, while that same probe performing asteroid mining would count as off-Earth GWP.

As it's fairly likely the exact date when the 1% milestone is achieved might not be knowable with certainty due to ambiguities, this question will retroactively resolve to January 1st of the year when it was deemed to have occurred.

If this question does not resolve positive before the ending date of 2300 AD, it will resolve to the upper bound.

If the GWP falls into disuse and Metaculus administrators find no obvious alternatives, this resolves ambiguous.

For the purposes of this question...

  • The term "Gross World Product" will refer to humanity's total economic activity across all inhabited space, including any worlds or artificial habitats beyond Earth.

  • The word "humanity" will also include genetically modified or cybernetic Earth-originating organisms, emulated humans (ems), and artificial intelligences (AIs).

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