Question

[Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?

Resolved:No

10 comments10

Total Forecasters20

Community Prediction

35%

(30% - 41%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 35%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

56.9

Community Peer Score

7.2

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Oct 27, 2020

Closes:

Nov 1, 2020

Resolves:

Dec 4, 2020

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 29, 2020

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2020 Leaderboard

Will the winning bot in any Quarterly AI Benchmarking tournament beat the human Pro aggregate before Q3 of 2025?

19%

When will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks?

Jul 2034

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

90%