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AbstractSpyTreeBot wins the Darwin Game
The Darwin Game is a game hosted on Lesswrong. In the Darwin Game, pairs of bots are matched up and play a Bargaining problem in which each name a number of points to get under the constraint that neither gets points if the number adds to more than 5. This is iterated for 100 turns so bots can incorporate the past behavior of their opponent in their decisions. The pool of bots has a number of copies of each bot proportional to how well they performed on previous rounds.
The user-submitted bots in the tournament have been categorized into 4 groups:
Norm Enforcers: Ben Pace and jacobjacob's bots which mutually cooperate.
Clone Army: A clique of 8 bots which cooperate with each other and will behave identically up until round 90.
Multics: EarlyBirdMimicBot, which uses an exploit to fake being a clone to the Clone Army but behaves differently against other bots, and two password bots which aid it.
Chaos Army: Miscellaneous group of all other user-submitted bots.
One of these other user-submitted bots is AbstractSpyTreeBot, which simulates its opponent to predict what number it will name and returns the highest number that would still give it points.
In a previous run of the tournament, AbstractSpyTreeBot was performing as well as the clone bots as of round 10 despite the clones not recognizing it as a clone, though this was run with a bug in the engine running the tournament.
Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?
This question resolves positively if, in the last round of the Darwin Game posted by lsusr, AbstractSpyTreeBot has the greatest population in the pool of bots.
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When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.