Question

[Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?

Resolved:No

10 comments10

Total Forecasters20

Community Prediction

35%

(30% - 41%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 35%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

56.9

Community Peer Score

7.2

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Oct 27, 2020

Closes:

Nov 1, 2020

Resolves:

Dec 4, 2020

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 29, 2020

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Darwin (programming game)

Will the winning bot in any Quarterly AI Benchmarking tournament beat the human Pro aggregate before Q3 of 2025?

19%

When will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks?

Jul 2034

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

90%