38 comments
118 forecasters
When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?
Current estimate
13 Aug 2029
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 26, 2020
Closes:Oct 24, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Oct 25, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 28, 2020
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
When will some country do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?
Feb 2050
(Mar 2039 - Sep 2066)
Feb 2050
(Mar 2039 - Sep 2066)
41 forecasters
How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?
0.256
(0.193 - 0.329)
0.256
(0.193 - 0.329)
35 forecasters
When will the first human baby be born, whose embryo was polygenically selected from a cohort of at least 50 simultaneously obtained ova?
Oct 2034
(14 Sep 2028 - May 2043)
Oct 2034
(14 Sep 2028 - May 2043)
38 forecasters