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How many iPhones will Apple sell in the first quarter of FY2018?
In the iPhone's first year, Apple sold 1.3 million units, a figure that seems paltry today compared to the nearly 212 million units sold in fiscal year 2016. On average, around 7 iPhones are sold every second.
But the iPhone's monster growth seems to have plateaued. After consistent growth, Apple's 2016 iPhone sales fell for the first time compared to the previous year. The first quarter of the fiscal year, coinciding with the holiday season, is typically the strongest for iPhone sales. But first quarter sales have held steady between 74 and 78 million units for the past three years. The company introduced three new models in September 2017, including the flagship iPhone X, but the device's unprecedentedly high price tag, $999-$1,149, may slow demand.
How many iPhones, in millions, will Apple sell in the first quarter of FY2018?
This question will resolve with the first quarter earnings report from Apple for FY2018, likely to be released in early February 2018.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.