Question

Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?

Resolved:Yes

4 comments4

Total Forecasters33

Community Prediction

60%

(54% - 97%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 60%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

16.5

Community Peer Score

12.5

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Nov 1, 2020

Closes:

Jan 22, 2022

Resolves:

Jan 22, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 3, 2020

Economy & Business

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Tesla Suffers Fresh Blow in Europe

Newsweek•Jun 25, 2025

New car registrations fall in Europe and Tesla sees another drop

•Jun 25, 2025

Tesla’s market share in Europe falls in May despite booming EV demand, but pace of descent slows

•Jun 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the 2030 light duty pure battery electric vehicle sales share exceed 35% in the US through November 2030?

24%

What percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric in 2030?

10.1

Will electric vehicles make up more than 10% of new light duty vehicle sales in the United States before October 2025?

16%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Nov 1, 2020

Closes:

Jan 22, 2022

Resolves:

Jan 22, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 3, 2020

Economy & Business

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Tesla Suffers Fresh Blow in Europe

Newsweek•Jun 25, 2025

New car registrations fall in Europe and Tesla sees another drop

•Jun 25, 2025

Tesla’s market share in Europe falls in May despite booming EV demand, but pace of descent slows

•Jun 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the 2030 light duty pure battery electric vehicle sales share exceed 35% in the US through November 2030?

24%

What percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric in 2030?

10.1

Will electric vehicles make up more than 10% of new light duty vehicle sales in the United States before October 2025?

16%