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53
276
forecasters
45
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276 forecasters
AI Demonstrations
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Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?
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53%
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100 forecasters
First AI-generated NYT Best Seller
Current estimate
20 Mar 2030
8 comments
136 forecasters
25% of NYT Best Sellers Written by AI by 2050
33%
chance
8 comments
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Development of Human-Level Language Models
Current estimate
18 Feb 2024
3 comments
18 forecasters
AI-written article in the New York Times
In 2024
0.1%
In 2025
0.1%
In 2026-2027
61.7%
In 2028-2029
28%
2030 or later
10.2%
13 comments
23 forecasters
AI Book Summarization Commonly Available
Current estimate
19 Mar 2026
1 comment
23 forecasters
AI to publish in a top scientific journal
Current estimate
12 Nov 2027
5 comments
10 forecasters
When will LLMs beat superforecasters at ForecastBench?
Current estimate
09 Feb 2028
71 comments
421 forecasters
AI book comprehension before 2030
99.9%
chance