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A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?
In 1936, the last known thylacine (also called a Tasmanian tiger) died in a zoo in Hobart, Tasmania. After that the species was presumed extinct, but sightings of thylacines persisted in the following decades, suggesting that some thylacines may have survived.
Several sightings have allegedly captured footage of the animal, and while the footage is compelling, it is not unambiguous.
In fall 2017, biologist Bill Laurance plans to deploy 50 camera traps throughout the Cape York peninsula in Tasmania, hoping to catch a glimpse of an elusive thylacine - if any still exist.
Will a living thylacine be documented conclusively by 2020?
This question will resolve as positive if credible, unambiguous evidence of a contemporary, living thylacine is reported by a credible news agency on or before Jan 1, 2020. Evidence may include, but is not limited to, clear photographic or video documentation of a living animal.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.