35 forecasters

2017 Physics Nobel Prize in Physics for Gravitational Waves?

48%chance

48%chance

ResolvedYes

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 48% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Sep 28, 2017

Closes:

Oct 3, 2017

Resolved:

Oct 3, 2017

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 28, 2017

Natural Sciences

2017 Leaderboard

After 10 years of black hole science, Stephen Hawking proven right

NPR Online News•Sep 11, 2025

Black hole collision confirms decades-old predictions by Einstein and Hawking

CNN•Sep 11, 2025

Gravitational waves finally prove Stephen Hawking's black hole theorem

New Scientist•Sep 10, 2025

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