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2017 Physics Nobel Prize in Physics for Gravitational Waves?

It's been a big couple of years for gravitational waves, with their first direct discovery announced by LIGO in February 2016, and a host of nice followup results. Most (and very) recently, a detection of merging black holes using LIGO plus Virgo. There's also lots of speculation (and predictions here) that soon a neutron-star – neutron-star merger detection will be announced.

As the detections seem firm and appear to have withstood scrutiny, talk of a Nobel prize has begun. The discovery is clearly prize-worthy, but how about the timing?

Will the 2017 Nobel Prize in Physics be awarded for the discovery of gravitational waves using the LIGO instrument?

No requirement is places on which individuals are named, just on the cited discovery.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

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Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.