Question
When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?
Total Forecasters40
Community Prediction
Feb 2040
(Dec 2031 - Aug 2058)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | Dec 2031 | — |
| median | Feb 2040 | — |
| upper 75% | Aug 2058 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2080 | 11.6% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Dec 3, 2020
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2039
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 5, 2020
Authors:
Opened:Dec 3, 2020
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2039
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 5, 2020