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68 comments
218 forecasters

Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?

1%chance
1%chance
ResolvedNo
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
t_adamczewski
Opened:Nov 13, 2020
Closes:Jan 21, 2021
Resolved:Jan 29, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 15, 2020
Politics
🏆 2020-2021 Leaderboard
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Could Ghislaine Maxwell, ‘Diddy’ be Pardoned?
Newsweek•Oct 10, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Donald Trump pardon anyone involved in these cases of political violence during his second term?

Paul Pelosi hammer attack
1.6%
Gretchen Whitmer kidnapping plot
13%
Josh Shapiro's residence arson attack
1.4%
18 forecasters

Will at least 10 individuals affiliated with the U.S. president receive a presidential pardon or commutation in the following years?

2021-2022
No
2023-2024
Yes
2025-2026
80%
1 other
44 forecasters

Will senior DOJ leaders override normal procedures to protect the President, his family, or his allies from a legal case in the following years?

2021-2022
No
2023-2024
No
2025-2026
90%
1 other
46 forecasters
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