6 comments
34 forecasters
When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?
Current estimate
26 Jan 2025
Key Factors
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Forecast Timeline
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Nov 13, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 15, 2020
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that he will not be mistreated by George Mason University through the end of 2030?
82% chance
28
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?
0.1% chance
61
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?
75% chance
50