42 comments
126 forecasters
Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Nov 16, 2020
Closes:May 27, 2024
Resolved:Feb 18, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 18, 2020
Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?
85% chance
30
Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?
66% chance
40
Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?
58 forecasters