Question
What will the community median's Brier score (at closing time) be when the Metaculus has 300 predictors per question?
Resolved:AmbiguousTotal Forecasters40
Community Prediction
0.098
(0.0816 - 0.118)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <0.05 | 2.4% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 0.08157 | — |
| median | 0.098 | — |
| upper 75% | 0.1181 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >0.5 | 0.2% | — |
What was the final result?Ambiguous
Authors:
Opened:Nov 26, 2020
Closes:Feb 1, 2021
Resolves:Mar 7, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 28, 2020
Authors:
Opened:Nov 26, 2020
Closes:Feb 1, 2021
Resolves:Mar 7, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 28, 2020